Variance, so brutal and yet so necessary

I wrote a long-winded book of a post and misclicked and lost everything. Seems like a paralel to my poker life. You do everything right and forget one detail and it comes back to bite you 10 fold. Basically treat your game like you're going to war and don't let your guard down or even the worst donks and fishes will capitalize. In my dissapearing post I rambled on about how the nature of this game is so deceiving. Winners look like loser, losers look like winners, and for a few hundred bucks you can sit down and actually beat the best players in the world!! What other game/sport could you do this? It also shows how hard it is to make a living at the game and how fast you think you have a game nailed. Basically most pros (if playing in a game that on average they can beat) after subtracting the rake paid to the casino have a small advantage of maybe a few percent. It would be like being able to bet on a coin flip and know that heads is a 55%/45% favorite. It's not hard to see that even as a favorite you could still flip tails 7 times in a row!! Even after months and years of solid results, things turn or leaks grow overnight and next thing you know you've become a donator.

If you want to beat this game, you really need to use every advantage you can get. Play small vs. bankroll, find your best $ returning games, stick to those games and try to master them. Take advantage of bonuses and rakeback. One note on bonuses, don't play any higher limits than your used to in order to cash in bonuses. Let them come as freebies on their own. I have in the past played much higher than I'm used to in order to try to claim bonus money before it expired and lost hundreds of dollars in order to claim $100-200.

This website routinely posts a daily hand quiz which asks for viewers feedback. Here is the most recent hand that I broke down and left my opinion on: http://www.dailyhandquiz.com/2008/09/26/top-pair-out-of-position-on-the-river-nl-tournament/

The last week or two has been a bit distracting. I was on vacation and tried to take advantage of my free time and play more multi's and it threw off my sng routine, coupled with a horrible run of bubbles and suckouts. I eventually decided to play smaller even though I was facing my 1st losing month in a while and only a week or so left in the month. I was very tempted to keep playing somewhat high to make up the difference, but I knew it was smarter to choke up on the bat and just try and make contact until I get make into the routine. I also tried to play a few new games. You never know what might be your next solid money maker and it after a few solid days and tremendous results I might have found something BIG. I'll keep it under raps for now. I need hundreds of games in order to get more accurate stats. It will be smart to scale up the new games if they continue to show potential. You never know, I might be back 2 weeks later with completely different results. This game is so brutal, because you really don't know if you are doing well until a few months later looking back.

Here's some more "Sun-Tzu" for you grasshoppers: "All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using forces, we must seem inactive."

In general for SNG's pay 30-33% Some 10 handers on Cake Poker pay 4 spots: 36-39% might break even, Over 40%=Usually would show a profit, and 45%+ Very profitableFor MTT's most good players finish in top 42% or better and most the multi's I play are around 200-400 players so on average I should make a final table at least 1 in every 20-40 tourneys

SNG's Cash % MTT's Avg finish/100 - Final Tables (Minimum 50 players+)
May 08 - 118/283= 41.7% 12 Tourneys - 42/100 - 0 Final tables
June 08 - 58/138= 42.0% 10 Tourneys - 39/100 - 1 Final Table
July 08 - 86/183= 47.0% 9 Tourneys - 33/100 - 2 Final Tables
Aug 08 - 60/118 = 50.8% 9 Tourneys - 36/100 - 1 Final Table
Sept 08 - 48/127 = 37.8% (So far) 20 Tourneys - 30/100 - 3 Final Tables (So Far)

Good luck fellow poker players and poker followers. A special good luck shout out to T_Dawgonu who's on his way to Aruba to play in the big Ultimatebet tourney he won a seat to earlier this month. Go Crewww!!! Please continue to pass on the questions and comments. Donkeyherder

My 1st blog and poker bio started on May 11th if interested: http://donkeyherder.livejournal.com/2008/05/11/

If you would like to check me out you can look me up on a few sites, pokerdb.com shows big tournament results. I play under "Donkeyherder"(Pokerstars),"Chipstacker2000"(FullTilt), "donkeyherder2"(UltimateBet), "d0nkeyherder"(Absolute Poker), and on Cake Poker (Which permits name changes on a weekly basis). I've never had a losing year. I won a seat to the 2006 WSOP Main Event and cashed in the top 10% of the field of over 9000 players. I've made 84 Final tables, including 11 1st's (50-1555 players). Most of the time you'll find me grinding out Sit-n-Gos. Business opportunity inquiries can reach me at: Donkeyherder2000@yahoo.com

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